Mathematics
Probability
Procedural
10–11 yrs
Experimental vs Theoretical
实验概率与理论概率
Description
Run repeated probability experiments and compare experimental (relative frequency) results with theoretical predictions; understand and demonstrate that as the number of trials increases, the experimental probability tends towards the theoretical probability — and that short runs can give very different results
Mastery Evidence
- Roll a die 60 times and compare experimental frequencies with the expected 10 per number
- Explain why experimental results don't exactly match theoretical predictions but get closer with more trials
- Predict what would happen if the experiment were repeated 600 times instead of 60
Assessment Prompt
If your child flips a coin 10 times and gets 7 heads, do they understand why this doesn't mean heads is "more likely" — and that the more times you flip, the closer the results get to 50:50?
