Risk, Uncertainty, and Cognitive Bias
风险、不确定性与认知偏差
Description
Distinguish between risk (decisions with known probabilities) and uncertainty (decisions with unknown outcomes); identify cognitive biases that distort risk assessment: availability heuristic (judging likelihood by how easily examples come to mind), present bias (overvaluing the immediate over the future), optimism bias (underestimating personal risk), and groupthink; understand why adolescent brains are biologically calibrated toward higher risk tolerance; apply a structured decision-making framework to real choices; understand the role of personal values in decisions where facts alone cannot determine the answer
Assessment Prompt
Can your child explain why taking a risk isn't always irrational — and describe one cognitive bias that causes people to misjudge risk in their everyday decisions, such as why teenagers tend to underestimate certain dangers?
