Mathematics Probability Conceptual 9–10 yrs

Ordering Likelihoods

可能性的排序

Description

Compare the likelihood of different events and order them from least to most likely — including situations with unequal outcomes such as a bag with more of one colour than another, or a spinner with sections of different sizes — and explain reasoning using informal language

Mastery Evidence

✓ Order four or more events from least likely to most likely and justify each placement
✓ Compare likelihoods when outcomes are not equally likely — e.g. 'Drawing red from a bag with 7 red and 3 blue is more likely than drawing blue'
✓ Explain why some events are closer to 'even chance' and others are closer to 'certain' or 'impossible'

Assessment Prompt

If a bag has 8 red counters and 2 blue ones, does your child understand that picking red is much more likely than picking blue — and can they put different events in order from least to most likely?